Israel Sends Strong Message to Syria's New Regime with IAF Flyover and Strikes

In a powerful display of air power, Israeli Air Force (IAF) fighter jets flew at low altitudes over Syria in recent days. This strategic maneuver was aimed at sending a clear message to the new Syrian regime, under interim President Ahmed al-Sharaa, that Israel will stand firm in its commitment to protect the Druze community in Syria.

The IAF’s low-level flyover was also a move to push the forces of al-Sharaa away from Druze-populated regions in Syria, as reported by N12. The Druze, an ethnoreligious group with significant populations in Syria, Israel, and Lebanon, have been increasingly fearful of the regime’s actions, especially following recent reports of violence targeting the Alawite community. There is a growing concern that the Druze may be next in line for similar persecution.

Israel has been in continuous communication with Druze leaders in Syria, reassuring them of its support and protection. In early March, Defense Minister Israel Katz and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu issued a joint statement affirming their commitment to the safety of the Druze population. The statement emphasized, "We will not allow the terrorist regime of radical Islam in Syria to harm the Druze," with a direct warning that any harm to the Druze would result in retaliation.

The Israeli government has also laid out concrete plans to further assist the Druze community. As part of a pilot program, Israel will begin allowing Syrian Druze workers into the country starting next week, initially focusing on agricultural work in the Golan Heights region. This initiative highlights Israel's continued commitment to support and integrate Syrian Druze into the broader Israeli community.

In addition to these diplomatic and humanitarian efforts, the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) carried out a series of airstrikes in Syria on Tuesday night and early Wednesday morning. These strikes targeted night radars and detection equipment, which could potentially be used to bolster the aerial intelligence capabilities of the new Syrian regime. The IDF’s strikes are part of a broader strategy to prevent the Syrian government from gaining control of weaponry left behind by the Assad regime.

Meanwhile, the ongoing violence in western Syria has raised serious concerns about the transitional government's control over its affiliated factions, while also bringing the involvement of Russia and Iran into sharper focus. The conflict, which erupted on March 6 between government forces and gunmen loyal to the deposed president, Bashar al-Assad, has resulted in over 800 casualties, including many civilians, according to human rights groups monitoring the situation.

The violence has been particularly devastating for the Alawite community, to which Assad belongs. Human rights groups report that entire families, including women and children, were killed during the clashes. Social media footage analyzed by investigative units reveals shocking scenes of execution-style killings, physical abuse, and humiliations, including forced animal-like behavior, adding to the brutality of the ongoing conflict.

As the violence escalated, thousands of civilians sought refuge at Russia’s Hmeimim airbase, located in the coastal region of Latakia. Satellite images from early March show large crowds of people, including tents and cars, gathering near the base. This airbase, crucial to Russia’s military presence in Syria, has seemingly become one of the few safe havens amidst the chaos. Analysts suggest that Russia’s continued presence in Syria has led both sides to avoid engaging near their military installations, providing some degree of protection to civilians.

Russia’s role in Syria has remained critical, especially with its strategic access to the Middle East, Mediterranean Sea, and North Africa via military bases in Syria. Despite the change in leadership, Moscow has maintained close ties with the new Syrian rulers, who rely on Russia for military support and even currency printing. The significant air traffic between Russia and Syria, as evidenced by the recent flights of Antonov cargo planes, further highlights Russia’s logistical and military investment in the region.

Iran's Increasing Influence and Potential Disruption

However, while Russia appears to have positioned itself as a key partner to Syria's new government, Iran’s influence has waned following Assad’s ouster. Tehran has long used Syria as a corridor to its regional proxies, but with the fall of Assad, Iran finds itself sidelined. However, Iran's presence remains significant through various loyalist factions still operating in Syria. Several key figures, including military commanders linked to the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC), are leading the resistance against the transitional government.

Some analysts, like Phillip Smyth, suggest that Iran may be actively stoking unrest in western Syria to create instability. The violence triggered by the transitional government could be a strategic move by Tehran to show its ability to disrupt Syria and influence the region, thereby maintaining some level of control despite its loss of influence with the new leadership.