Rising Threats in Aleppo: The Strategic Risks of Syrian Rebels and Their Weaponry

Israel’s security establishment is sounding alarms over the growing threat posed by Syrian rebel forces seizing strategic sites in Aleppo. After the rebel groups, primarily composed of al-Qaeda-aligned factions, entered the city last week and forced President Bashar al-Assad's regime to flee, Israel's concerns have intensified. The rebels now control crucial military infrastructure, including chemical weapon production facilities, missile storage, and various types of advanced weaponry.

The captured areas around Aleppo contain significant quantities of weapons, including missiles, tanks, armored personnel carriers, and aircraft, which had previously been under the control of Assad’s forces. Additionally, the area houses factories producing a range of munitions, including rockets, precision missiles, and weapons manufactured for Hezbollah and Iran-backed Shiite militias. These weapon systems are of particular concern to Israel, as they could be used to target the Israeli home front if the rebels decide to redirect their military capabilities.

The immediate threat is the concentration of these weapons, which complicates Israel Defense Forces (IDF) operations to target weapons smuggling from Iran to Syria and onward to Hezbollah in Lebanon. The rebels, although primarily focused on overthrowing Assad's regime in the short term, may shift their attention towards Israel as they consolidate control over the region.

Iran’s Role and Growing Influence

In addition to the risk posed by the rebels, Iran’s deepening involvement in Syria remains a key strategic concern for Israel. Iran is heavily invested in supporting Assad’s regime, providing both military and logistical aid. If the Syrian regime succeeds in regaining control over areas seized by the rebels, Iran’s influence in Syria could be further cemented. This would bolster Iran’s ability to manipulate the region, making it a critical point of focus for Israeli security.

Furthermore, moderate Sunni states are pushing for Assad to distance himself from Iran's “Axis of Evil” and potentially rejoin the Arab League, which could open avenues for foreign investment to help Syria rebuild. This shift in diplomatic relations could have significant implications for Israel’s regional security posture.

International Pressure on Rebel Groups

The U.S. has also taken notice of the situation, with the Biden administration calling for Turkey to exert restraint over the Syrian National Army (SNA), a group it backs in northern Syria. The SNA has been involved in conflicts with Kurdish groups in the region, further complicating the dynamics of the Syrian war. U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken communicated these concerns in a call with Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan, highlighting the instability exacerbated by Assad’s ongoing refusal to engage in a political process to resolve the conflict.

The Future of Syria and Israel’s Security

As rebel groups, including Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), gain ground in Aleppo, the potential for further escalation grows. Videos from recent weeks showed the group driving through areas they have captured, including parts of Aleppo city. The rebel push into Aleppo has not only destabilized the region but also has the potential to affect Israel’s security interests.