Russia’s Role in Syria’s Escalating Conflict: Civilian Toll and Global Tensions

Since Russia's military intervention in Syria in 2015, its air strikes have played a pivotal role in preserving President Bashar al-Assad’s regime. Moscow’s support, particularly through extensive airstrikes, was instrumental in preventing the fall of Assad’s government during critical phases of the Syrian civil war. However, this intervention has come at a devastating cost for Syrian civilians, with widespread destruction and heavy casualties.

Russia's air campaign in Syria has been central to its regional strategy, solidifying Moscow’s influence in the Middle East. It not only backed Assad but also positioned Russia as a counterbalance to Western influence in the region, especially as the United States and European nations opposed Assad's brutal crackdown on protesters. Despite Moscow's claims of targeting only "terrorists," the reality on the ground has been far grimmer, with thousands of civilian deaths and widespread infrastructure damage.

The resurgence of conflict, as militant groups like Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) take control of key cities such as Aleppo, signals another potential shift in the war. Russia and the Syrian government are once again attempting to quell a major offensive, but this has resulted in more civilian casualties and destruction.

Renewed Strikes: A Familiar Pattern of Destruction

Reports from Idlib, a stronghold of rebel and militant groups, reveal that Russian airstrikes continue to target civilian infrastructure. On December 2, 2024, Russian strikes reportedly damaged hospitals and health facilities in the region. Videos confirmed by the White Helmets show buildings reduced to rubble, burning vehicles, and civilian casualties, painting a grim picture of the ongoing conflict.

Experts like Nicole Grajewski from the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace argue that Russia’s military strategy in Syria, especially in rebel-held areas, has consistently disregarded civilian lives. "Russia has never shown a real particular concern for civilian casualties," Grajewski noted, highlighting the ineffectiveness of Russia’s targeting and the lack of distinction between military and civilian zones.

A Dangerous Escalation in Syria and Beyond

As the situation in Syria intensifies, multiple international powers are deeply involved. The U.S., Russia, Turkey, and Iran have competing interests in the region, which complicates efforts for peace. The Syrian government’s recent struggles, especially the loss of Aleppo, have prompted external actors to increase their involvement.

Iran, a staunch ally of Assad, has sent additional fighters to Syria to support government forces. In turn, the U.S.-backed Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) have capitalized on the government’s vulnerability, gaining ground in the northeast. As this competition for territory continues, global players like Israel are also monitoring the situation closely, fearing that chemical weapons and other advanced weaponry may fall into the hands of hostile groups.

Russian Strategy: Degrading Civilian Infrastructure

Mark Galeotti, an expert on Russian politics and security, argued that Russia's military strategy in Syria often targets civilian infrastructure. While not always a deliberate strategy to harm civilians, it is part of a broader tactic aimed at weakening opposition forces and demoralizing the population. "Russia neither deliberately targets civilians nor avoids them: if they are in the way of a strike deemed operationally necessary, so be it," Galeotti said.

This pattern of "indiscriminate" attacks, which has also been evident in Russia’s actions in Ukraine, reflects Moscow’s broader military doctrine: a willingness to accept civilian casualties if it serves military objectives. Such actions have drawn widespread international criticism but have largely gone unpunished on the ground.

The Impact on the Broader Middle East

As the conflict grows, there are fears that it could destabilize the entire region. Tensions between Israel and Iran, both heavily involved in Syria, continue to rise. Israel has carried out numerous airstrikes against Iranian-backed forces in Syria, including Hezbollah. The growing presence of militia groups in Syria is of particular concern to Israel, which fears that weapons, including chemical weapons, could fall into the wrong hands.

The involvement of Iran-backed forces complicates the battlefield even further, particularly with Kurdish fighters in the mix. The U.S. has long supported Kurdish forces like the YPG, but Turkey considers them a terrorist group. This delicate balance between opposing factions further fuels the instability in Syria and the surrounding areas.

The current crisis in Syria, exacerbated by Russia’s military involvement and the collapse of peace processes, shows no signs of abating. With rebel groups like HTS gaining ground, and external actors such as Iran and the U.S. pushing their agendas, the path to peace seems distant. In the meantime, civilians continue to bear the brunt of the violence, as their homes, hospitals, and lives are destroyed by the ongoing airstrikes and military offensives. The international community remains divided, and it remains unclear whether diplomacy or military action will provide a lasting solution.