Russia's Setback in Syria: Implications for Its War Against Ukraine

The recent collapse of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad’s regime has triggered significant shifts in the geopolitical landscape, raising questions about the impact on Russia’s ongoing conflict with Ukraine. With its military stretched across multiple fronts, the Kremlin’s focus on the war in Ukraine has weakened its efforts in Syria, leading to a rapid Syrian rebel offensive that Russia struggled to control.

Although Russia’s military presence in Syria is relatively small, with around 6,000-7,000 personnel, the loss of Syria could potentially influence Moscow’s strategic priorities. Analysts agree that the direct effect on Russia’s war efforts in Ukraine is limited. However, the shifting power dynamics in the Middle East may have more significant consequences for Russia’s reputation and international standing.

In the immediate term, any reduction in Russia's presence in Syria could free up resources, including reconnaissance, air force, and intelligence assets. This may slightly affect the Russian military's capabilities in Ukraine, particularly the air force. However, experts argue that the loss of a few thousand troops is unlikely to change the battlefield dynamics in Ukraine, where Russia continues to face high casualties and challenges in its eastern offensive.

The departure of Russian warplanes from Syria would potentially strengthen Moscow’s aviation group fighting in Ukraine, but many experts are dismissing this as a minor shift.

However, the fall of Assad’s regime marks a significant political setback for Russia, which had positioned Syria as a symbol of its resurgence as a global power. This defeat could amplify Putin’s resolve to control Ukraine, as analysts suggest the loss may push him to demonstrate even more rigid control and resilience in the face of international pressure.

"The war in Ukraine has cost him Syria, which reinforces his unwillingness to compromise," said Tatyana Stanovaya from the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center, highlighting how the geopolitical blow in Syria could impact Russia’s stance on Ukraine.

Global Perception and Ukraine’s Advantage

For Ukraine, the fall of Assad presents a potential opportunity to sway global opinion and reinforce the perception that Russia is not invincible. Ukrainian officials have seized on the moment to emphasize that even nuclear powers can be defeated, citing historical examples like the Soviet Union's defeat in Afghanistan and the United States’ withdrawal from Vietnam.

Ukraine’s Foreign Minister Volodymyr Ohryzko noted that Russia’s vulnerability could help galvanize international support. Analysts argue that this geopolitical humiliation could prompt further Western military aid to Ukraine, strengthening its position against Russia.

Conclusion

While the loss of Syria is unlikely to have an immediate, dramatic effect on Russia’s military capabilities in Ukraine, it represents a significant setback for Putin’s ambitions in the region. The collapse of Assad’s regime undermines Russia’s projection of power and may lead to greater international pressure. Ukraine, in turn, is leveraging this shift to bolster its case for continued Western support, underscoring the possibility of victory with adequate assistance.