Syria’s Military Reconstruction: A Long Road Ahead After Israeli Strikes

The recent Israeli strikes during Operation Bashan Arrow have left significant damage to Syria’s military capabilities. Rebuilding the strength Syria had before these strikes could take years and cost billions of dollars. Once a formidable military power, Syria’s forces now face a daunting challenge to regain their former might, especially after the destruction of key assets in Israel's latest air campaign.

Over the years, Syria developed its military strength primarily through missile forces and chemical weapons, shifting focus from air superiority in response to Israel’s dominance during the 1982 First Lebanon War. Under the leadership of Hafez al-Assad, Syria built a robust air defense system, which included over 100 batteries of long-range SA-5 and S-300 missiles, and mobile systems like BUK-M1/2 and Pantsir. These systems, along with radar installations, electronic warfare capabilities, and intelligence bases, were severely damaged in recent Israeli strikes.

The devastation of Syria's arsenal is evident. Israel’s air force destroyed hundreds of surface-to-surface missiles, including Scuds, and thousands of rockets, rendering them unusable. The Syrian air force, which once boasted 30 MiG-29 aircraft, has seen its fleet significantly diminished. Helicopters, including Mil Mi-17 transport helicopters and Mil Mi-24 attack helicopters, have also been rendered inoperable.

Rebuilding Syria’s air defense and missile systems would require an estimated $1 billion just for batteries, interceptor stockpiles, and crew training. The procurement of new aircraft, such as the MiG-35, and missile systems like the Pantsir would add billions more in costs. Given Syria’s ongoing economic struggles, even with potential support from allies like Iran, Russia, or North Korea, such a task would take over a decade to complete.

While Russia and Iran could offer support, both countries face their own limitations. Russia, embroiled in the Ukraine conflict, is no longer able to supply Syria with the same level of military aid it did in the past.

Despite these challenges, Syria remains a potential threat to Israel, especially with the rise of jihadist groups in the region. While the scenario of a full-scale Syrian invasion of the Golan Heights seems unlikely in the near future, smaller, more complex threats continue to loom on the horizon.