Israeli Coalition Faces Budget Crisis as Key Votes Hinge on Ultra-Orthodox Demands

The Israeli government is facing a critical challenge in securing the majority needed to pass the 2025 state budget, which must be approved by March 31 to prevent the government from collapsing. The situation has become even more precarious after three members of the Agudat Yisrael faction – part of the United Torah Judaism (UTJ) party – announced their intent to vote against the budget unless a bill to exempt a majority of ultra-Orthodox yeshiva students from IDF service is passed first.

Housing Minister Yitzhak Goldknopf, along with MKs Yaakov Tessler and Moshe Roth, made it clear that they will not support the budget unless the controversial bill, which is currently under review by the Knesset Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee, is passed. However, with the committee unlikely to finalize the bill before the end of the month, the coalition's path to securing the necessary votes is unclear.

Currently, the coalition holds a narrow 62-58 majority in the Knesset following the exit of Otzma Yehudit in January, which took six MKs with it. Goldknopf, who is currently not an MK, is expected to resign from his ministerial position and use the Norwegian Law to regain voting rights. This will push out Degel Hatorah MK Eliyahu Baruchi. However, in an unexpected twist, Deputy Transportation Minister Uri Maklev may also resign to regain his voting rights, potentially pushing Roth out of the Knesset and leaving only Goldknopf and Tessler as the UTJ members opposing the budget.

With just these two votes against the budget, the coalition would find itself in a deadlock, resulting in a 60-60 tie. In this scenario, the budget would not pass, and the government would fall.

While this scenario is concerning, much could change in the coming weeks. A potential Israeli reinvasion of Gaza could see Otzma Yehudit rejoin the coalition, providing the crucial votes needed to pass the budget. This shift would secure the majority necessary for approval.

On the other hand, other members of the UTJ faction, such as MK Yisrael Eichler, may also vote against the budget. Eichler, who is aligned with the Belz hassidut, has refrained from making any public statements on the matter, preferring to wait until the end of the month to see how the situation unfolds.

Coalition's Backup Plan: Securing Abstentions

If the budget reaches a 60-60 tie, there may still be a way forward. Coalition leaders could work to convince at least one opposition MK to abstain from voting. This could be done by offering political capital, such as a future spot on the Likud list or a commitment to advance specific legislation desired by the opposition member. Potential candidates for abstention include independent MKs like Almog Cohen from Otzma Yehudit and Idan Roll, formerly of Yesh Atid, who have shown some willingness to act outside their parties' lines.