Saudi Aramco Expects Strong Oil Demand Growth As President Trump's Policies Make Waves

Saudi Aramco, the world’s largest oil exporter, is forecasting global oil demand to grow steadily by 1.3 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2025, compared to the previous year. CEO Amin Nasser, speaking at the World Economic Forum in Davos, confirmed that oil demand is expected to reach nearly 106 million bpd this year, up from around 104.6 million bpd in 2024. Nasser stated, “We still think the market is healthy, and there is growth in the market.”

The robust demand outlook is echoed by OPEC’s January Monthly Oil Market Report, projecting similar growth both this year and into 2025. In fact, OPEC expects global oil demand to grow by 1.4 million bpd in 2025 and again by 1.4 million bpd in 2026, reaching a total of 106.6 million bpd.

However, while the demand outlook remains strong, there are concerns about the impact of U.S. sanctions on Russian oil. Nasser cautioned that it is still too early to assess any potential supply disruptions due to these sanctions. In contrast to OPEC’s growth estimates, the International Energy Agency (IEA) is forecasting a more modest 1 million bpd growth in 2025, citing slight improvements in the global economic outlook.

Meanwhile, U.S. President Donald Trump, on his first day in office, signed an executive order aimed at boosting America's energy production. The order seeks to unleash U.S. energy resources by easing barriers to oil and gas extraction, promoting energy exploration, and encouraging the development of energy infrastructure. The move is designed to solidify the U.S. as a global energy leader, with a focus on both oil and gas production and non-fuel minerals, such as rare earth minerals.

Trump’s executive order also targets the elimination of the electric vehicle (EV) mandate, empowering consumers to make their own vehicle choices without government-imposed restrictions. The policy aims to reduce reliance on electric vehicles and create a more competitive market for all types of vehicles. Additionally, the new administration is looking to reduce subsidies for EVs and remove barriers that hinder the availability of gasoline-powered cars.

Trump’s energy policies align with the global demand trends highlighted by Saudi Aramco and OPEC. As energy production ramps up in the U.S. with fewer regulatory constraints, the demand for oil globally remains strong. Saudi Aramco’s outlook, paired with OPEC’s forecast, paints a picture of a growing energy market over the next few years, despite challenges posed by political and economic factors like sanctions on Russia and shifting U.S. policies.