Syria’s Oil & Gas Sector: A Geopolitical Tug of War

After the sudden ousting of longtime Syrian President Bashar al-Assad on December 8, 2024, the country finds itself at the heart of geopolitical competition. The new caretaker government, under President Ahmed al-Sharaa, has announced public tenders for the development of Syria’s oil and gas industries, signaling the potential for revitalizing the sector. However, with such an important geopolitical location in the Middle East, competition between major global powers is intensifying to stake a claim in Syria's future.

Russia was the first to make an official visit to Syria following Assad’s removal. Deputy Foreign Minister Mikhail Bogdanov arrived in Damascus on January 28 and met with President al-Sharaa and other high-level officials. The visit focused on Russia’s unwavering support for Syria’s unity, sovereignty, and territorial integrity. Moscow views Syria as vital to its interests for three main reasons:

1. Strategic Location: Syria sits at the western edge of the Shia Crescent, which Russia has strategically developed as a counterpoint to U.S. influence in the region.

2. Mediterranean Access: Syria’s coastline provides Russia with critical access to the Mediterranean for the export of oil, gas, and other products.

3. Military Presence: Russia maintains a major naval base at Tartus, its only Mediterranean port, along with air and intelligence facilities, making Syria essential to its regional military and intelligence operations.

Russia had also hoped to make Syria a self-financing operation by revitalizing its oil and gas industries, which had been severely damaged during the ongoing civil war. Before the conflict, Syria produced around 400,000 barrels per day (bpd) of crude oil, and its gas sector was one of the most vibrant in the region. However, due to the war and the control of key fields by groups like ISIS, production significantly dropped.

In 2017, Russia signed a cooperation plan with Syria to restore energy infrastructure, including the repair of key oil refineries and power plants. This ambitious plan aimed to rejuvenate Syria’s energy sector, aligning with Russia's broader geopolitical interests in the region.

In response to Russia’s moves, the U.S. and its allies have made their own plans for Syria’s future. According to reports, the U.S. and the U.K. boosted support for rebel forces in Syria ahead of Assad’s removal, partly to disrupt Russia’s grand strategy. The U.S. has shown an interest in reshaping the region’s borders and political order, and experts believe the removal of Assad is part of that larger vision.

Washington is unlikely to allow Russia or Iran to benefit from Syria’s reconstruction without U.S. involvement. Some analysts suggest that a gradual and inclusive reconstruction plan, involving Syria’s former rebel groups, could lead to a better outcome for the region and challenge Moscow’s influence.

With the country now looking to restart exploration and production activities in both its oil and gas sectors, competition among global powers is heating up. As Syria reopens its doors for development, its oil and gas wealth is becoming a key bargaining chip in the ongoing power struggle between Russia, the U.S., and other regional players.