Ukraine Escalates Drone Attacks on Russian Energy Infrastructure As North Korean Forces Withdraw

On Monday, southern Russia was rocked by a significant escalation in the ongoing conflict with Ukraine. Ukrainian drones targeted two major energy facilities: Lukoil’s refinery in Volgograd, the largest refinery in southern Russia, and a Gazprom gas processing plant in the Astrakhan region. Both attacks underscore Ukraine’s increasing use of drones to strike critical energy infrastructure within Russia.

The Lukoil refinery, which has a processing capacity of 300,000 barrels per day (bpd), was directly struck by Ukrainian drones, resulting in fires that were quickly contained. The governor of the Volgograd region, Andrey Bocharov, confirmed the attack and reported that the fires from the falling debris were localized, preventing further damage.

This latest strike follows a pattern of Ukrainian drone attacks aimed at Russia’s energy facilities. Just a week prior, Ukrainian forces targeted another Lukoil refinery in the Nizhny Novgorod region, causing significant damage and disrupting operations at the facility. The attack set a massive 20,000-ton oil storage tank on fire and halted the refinery’s operations, which process 262,000 bpd—roughly 5% of Russia's total refining capacity.

Ukraine's continued focus on Russian energy infrastructure has been a key part of its strategy to undermine Russia’s war effort. These strikes are not only targeting oil and gas facilities but also significantly affecting Russia's fuel product supply and crude processing rates, adding further strain to its economy.

In addition to the refinery attacks, Ukrainian drones also targeted a Gazprom gas processing plant in Russia’s Astrakhan region. While Russia claimed to have contained the resulting fire at the facility, the heightened use of drone technology by Ukraine comes as part of its ongoing efforts to degrade Russia’s energy production and logistics capabilities, making it more difficult for Moscow to sustain its military operations.

While the conflict continues to escalate on the energy front, developments in the military sphere are also unfolding. Reports from South Korea’s National Intelligence Service (NIS) suggest that North Korean troops, who were deployed to support Russian forces in the Kursk region, have ceased combat operations since mid-January. The NIS speculates that high casualty rates may have driven this withdrawal, as around 300 North Korean soldiers have been killed, with 2,700 more wounded.

North Korea initially sent approximately 11,000 troops to bolster Russian efforts in the Kursk region, where intense combat with Ukrainian forces had been ongoing since early August 2024. However, the absence of North Korean troops from active combat for nearly three weeks has raised questions about the sustainability of their involvement.

While the withdrawal of North Korean forces has been confirmed, the possibility of their return to the front lines remains open, contingent on receiving reinforcements and additional training. Intelligence sources have not ruled out a future return of these troops, but for now, their role in the conflict appears to have diminished.

As Ukraine continues to target key facilities and undermine Russia’s military capacity, Moscow’s reliance on external support, including North Korea, has proven to be a double-edged sword. As intelligence agencies closely monitor these developments, it is clear that the situation remains fluid, and the balance of power on the ground could shift at any moment.