Trump's Incoming Envoy Calls for Renewed "Maximum Pressure" on Iran

As U.S. President-elect Donald Trump's incoming special envoy for Russia and Ukraine, Keith Kellogg, attended an Iranian opposition event in Paris, he reiterated the administration’s stance on Iran, urging the return of a "maximum pressure" strategy. Kellogg, a retired lieutenant general, emphasized that this pressure should not only be military but also economic and diplomatic, aiming to force Iran to adopt more democratic reforms and cease its support for extremist groups in the Middle East. Kellogg made these remarks on January 11 during a gathering of the National Council of Resistance of Iran (NCRI), a group considered by Tehran to be a terrorist organization.

The "maximum pressure" policy, which Trump championed during his previous term, aimed to cripple the Iranian economy through sanctions in hopes of compelling Tehran to negotiate over its nuclear and missile programs. Trump withdrew from the 2015 Iran nuclear deal in 2018, criticizing the agreement's inability to prevent Iran from advancing its nuclear weapons capabilities. Now, as he prepares to return to office, Trump is poised to continue this hardline approach to Iran, with the goal of reshaping the nation's behavior on the global stage.

In Paris, Kellogg stressed the current opportunities to bring change to Iran, citing weaknesses within the regime that could be exploited. However, it remains unclear whether Kellogg's comments were directly aligned with Trump’s broader strategy, as Kellogg’s appointment as the special envoy for Russia and Ukraine was made only a few months ago.

On the Iranian side, Hussein Salami, commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC), responded with a warning to the incoming U.S. administration. Salami cautioned that strategic miscalculations by the U.S. could lead to armed conflict, stressing that Iran's military capabilities should not be underestimated. The IRGC has been designated as a foreign terrorist organization by the U.S. since 2019, further complicating the relationship between Tehran and Washington.

The coming years could be a turning point for Iran, as it faces internal economic crises and regional setbacks. Following a series of blows to its influence in the region, including the weakening of its proxy groups like Hezbollah and losses in Syria, Iran’s position is more vulnerable than it has been in years. Additionally, the expiration of the nuclear deal in 2025 could put further pressure on Tehran, especially as the West grows increasingly impatient with its nuclear program.

Iran is at a critical juncture, facing both domestic and international challenges. Experts suggest that the country’s clerical leadership must make difficult decisions to avoid further decline. The potential re-engagement of the U.S. under Trump’s "maximum pressure" policy could exacerbate these issues, forcing Iran to confront the full weight of international isolation.