Turkish-Backed Rebels Make Gains in Northwestern Syria as Russia Sends Mixed Signals

In a major development in the Syrian conflict, Turkish-backed rebel forces, led by Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), are making substantial territorial advances in the Latakia Governorate of northwestern Syria. The rebel offensive, which started this week, has brought forces within 20 miles of Russia's strategically important Khmeimim Air Base, raising alarms within Russian military circles.

On the morning of December 1, 2024, rebel units reached the town of Qalaat Al Madiq, northwest of Hama, a key location connecting Syria's western coastal regions to the broader northwestern territory. The swift rebel offensive overwhelmed Syrian regime defenses, leading to a strategic shift in the area.

As the rebels continue their push westward, the threat to the Russian Khmeimim Air Base has intensified. Located 35 kilometers from the advancing forces, the base serves as a central hub for Russia's air operations in Syria and has been crucial in supporting Syrian President Bashar al-Assad's regime. The proximity of rebel forces to this key installation has prompted an increased Russian military presence and several airstrikes aimed at slowing the rebels' momentum.

### Heightened Tensions and Growing Instability

The rapid gains made by HTS and allied factions have caught Syrian forces off guard, with regime troops struggling to maintain control of vital positions. The rebel forces, highly coordinated and motivated, are utilizing artillery and ground assaults to displace Syrian defenders. Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham, once an al-Qaeda affiliate, has emerged as a leader in this offensive, shifting the balance of power in the region.

Meanwhile, the conflict in Syria's northwestern region is becoming more complicated, with multiple factions vying for control amid shifting alliances, including Turkish involvement. The rebels' territorial gains are especially significant as they bring the conflict closer to the Mediterranean coastline, an area long desired by Russia to secure its military influence in the region.

### Russia’s Response and the Withdrawal of Naval Assets

As rebel forces push deeper into the Latakia Governorate, Russia's response has involved airstrikes targeting rebel positions, supply lines, and regrouping forces. Despite these efforts, the rebels are determined to press forward, emboldened by their early successes.

Amid these developments, Russia appears to be pulling back some of its key naval assets from the strategic port of Tartus, Syria. On December 2, 2024, the Russian auxiliary ship Yelnya departed from Tartus, and reports indicate the withdrawal of additional naval assets, including frigates, a submarine, and other auxiliary vessels. While Moscow has not officially commented on this redeployment, analysts suggest the move could be related to the shifting dynamics on the ground and concerns over the stability of the Assad regime.

Tartus, a critical hub for Russian military operations in the Mediterranean since 1971, has served as a vital logistics center during Russia’s intervention in the Syrian Civil War. The withdrawal of these assets could signal a reassessment of Russia’s long-term strategy in Syria and its growing concerns over the security of its military foothold in the region.